World Cup 2014 preview: USA vs. Germany

preview: USA vs. Germany

World Cup 2014 preview: USA vs. Germany

Can two defensively suspect teams settle on a needed draw? If Team USA and Germany simply equal each other’s goal tallies, both sides will go through to the knockout rounds. In most cases, it would be expected that the two sides should line up in highly defensive formations and show little adventure, committing only the minimum number of men to any attack. If both sides play defensively, the draw will come regardless of any conspiracy.

Germany vs United States Live Highlight

The problem is, neither side is built to play the sort of boring, unadventurous soccer such a fixture requires. American fans are well aware of the struggles of Team USA to secure a back line, and Jurgen Klinsmann has settled on a system which uses two deep-lying and mostly defensive midfielders in Jermaine Jones and Kyle Beckerman to protect that back four.

Similarly, Germany is not the Germany of soccer legend, solid and hard-working and just good enough on set pieces to score one more goal than its opponent. Instead, under Jogi Loew Germany has been transformed into one of the most innovative and exciting attacking teams in the world. Playing a 4-3-3 without any true forward, the German system arguably includes either two or three false nines. As Mario Götze, Mesut Özil or Thomas Mueller drops out of the forward position and drags a defender out of position with him, one of the others or a midfielder like Sami Khedira will see the space that opens up and make a run toward the danger zone. These runs have produced many big chances already in the tournament, and the Germans have averaged three goals per match. They also averaged the same total in the much lower-scoring context of European qualifying. As currently set up, Germany could easily stumble into a goal or two running a conservative version of their current system.

At the same time, Germany’s 2-2 draw with Ghana exposed major defensive frailties. My statistics rate Germany as the best attacking side in the World Cup but only the twelfth or so best defensive team. In particular, injuries have forced Loew to play center back Benedikt Hoewedes out of position at left back, and he was badly exposed by Ghana’s dangerous wing players. Fabian Johnson, Team USA’s best attacking threat against Portugal, will likely again have opportunities to impact the game with his runs out of defense.